GLOBAL PULSE: What the Data Tells Us About 2026

Greetings Travel South Partners, 

In my last newsletter, I wrote about the growing burden on leadership during rapid societal changes. On average, CEOs are now navigating six to eight “hot topics” simultaneously, sometimes up to ten, compared to just a handful in the past. I didn’t expect the weeks that followed to prove the point quite so quickly.

Since then, escalating geopolitical tension, cartel violence in Mexico, the Iran conflict and its ripple effects across the Middle East, new tariff threats, soaring oil prices, and markets reacting to each development in real time. Sarah Kolpit of Skift noted that a defining theme of conversations at ITB Berlin was the question she heard most often: some version of, “What does it feel like to be an American right now?”

That question lives at the center of everything we’re watching in international inbound travel this year.

The headline from Future Partners’ 2026 State of the International Traveler is hard to ignore. “Global travelers’ likelihood of visiting the U.S. dropped to a record low, while outright refusal to visit nearly tripled compared to 2025 levels.” Perception of the U.S. declined across nearly every major source market. Canada saw a 15 percentage-point drop in U.S. destination preference year over year, the sharpest single-market decline in their study.

The barriers to inbound travel also include proposed fees and policies. The new $250 visa integrity fee is likely to reduce willingness to travel among 57% of travelers in non-visa-waiver countries. The highest impact is in India (71%), Brazil (62%), and China (60%), three of Travel South’s projected highest-growth markets. National Park fee increases are also suppressing interest for more than 43% of global travelers. On top of it, the proposed social media screening weakens interest in visiting the U.S. by 35%.

Despite the declining sentiment, here’s what keeps us cautiously optimistic about inbound international travel to the region.

The U.S. remains the top-ranked destination in Travel South’s five key global markets. Brazil, Japan, India, Canada, and China. Cities, national parks, and beaches remain the most compelling draws across every source market. Shopping, food, theme parks, and atmosphere also lure interested travelers.

Early economic projections from Tourism Economics reinforce this optimism. International inbound travel spending is projected to increase by 6% to $8.7 billion after last year’s decline of 2.5%. Growth is forecasted at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2023 through 2027. This trajectory is more than double the pre-pandemic rate of 3%  from 2015 through 2019. The growth is uneven from source markets, but it is there. China leads projected growth at 27%, followed by Brazil at 13%, Japan at 11%, India at 10%, and Benelux at 9%. The UK, Germany, and Australia are tracking reliably as high-value markets (6%). 

Now here is where it gets interesting for us specifically.

Future Partners’ data breaks travelers into two groups: those whose perceptions of the U.S. have improved, and those whose perceptions have declined. The travelers in the declined group are telling us something very important. Nearly 50% of them say they want a friendly and welcoming tone in travel marketing messaging. They have also raised safety concerns, recalling the negative media coverage of U.S. cities.

For the region, this challenge is an opportunity. Not only is the region perceived as safe, but the “Y’all Welcome” speaks directly to the emotional barrier this data describes. Warmth, accessibility, and Southern hospitality. While political discomfort about the U.S. is real, the South’s identity is personal, local, and welcoming.

This summer’s FIFA World Cup is also a genuine inflection point. Atlanta and Kansas City are among the 11 U.S. host cities. Some 47% of global travelers remain interested in attending, despite the broader decline in U.S. travel intent. Latin American and Asian markets are projecting the longest intended stays. 

As geopolitics dominates headlines, interest in visitingthe U.S. has decreased to 36%. However, it hasn’t completely eliminated the desire to visit the U.S. International travelers are still researching, still planning, still evaluating, and still re-evaluating. The friction is not the existence of demand. It’s whether the industry is shifting its focus to the travelers who are still eager to come. Travelers are actively researching their way through uncertainty. Being findable, reassuring, and specific in that moment matters.

Geopolitical conflict, macro volatility, and policy changes dominate the real field.  Big-picture market prioritization still matters. But the real constraint is that uncertainty is now a structural feature of this industry. Expect to spend at least 50% of your time on tactics and real-time response issues with a horizon of less than a year, far more than on 3-year-plus priorities.  

The opportunity in 2026 is real. So is the noise. 

As Churchill put it into perspective, “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.”

With Gratitude, 

Esra Calvert

Esra Calvert Consulting

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